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Go or no-go: paddle, beach, hike, stars and fire pit

Right now. Right now: paddle go, beach maybe, hike go, stargaze go, fire pit check first. Based on the next few hours. Updated 4:30 PM, Oct 16.

This page gives a Go, Maybe or No go for paddling, the beach, a hike, stargazing and a fire pit. Each answer shows its reasons: wind, waves, air quality, clouds, temperature and fire alerts. The rules are listed below. A missing forecast gives No call. Old air or alert data gives Not sure, data is old.

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A cove on the north shore of Lake Tahoe near Incline Village, with docks and snowy mountains behind.

Paddle

Go

  • Wind up to 2 mph, gusts to 8 mph.
  • Waves about 0.1 ft (a forecast; no lake sensor exists).
  • Air quality is 42 AQI.
  • The water is 59°F. Wear a life jacket and dress for cold water.

Beach

Maybe

  • About 59°F.
  • Wind up to 2 mph.
  • Air quality is 42 AQI.
  • The water is 59°F.

Hike

Go

  • About 59°F.
  • Gusts to 8 mph.
  • Air quality is 42 AQI.

Stargaze

Go

  • Cloud cover about 3% tonight.
  • Air quality is 42 AQI.
  • The moon is about 32% lit.

Fire pit

Check first

  • Gusts to 8 mph.
  • In Incline Village and Crystal Bay, recreational fires and gas fire pits need a North Lake Tahoe Fire Protection District burn permit. Check the district's burn status first.

The rules we use

  • Paddle: Go when wind is 8 mph or less, gusts are 12 mph or less and waves are 0.5 ft or less. No go at 15 mph wind, 20 mph gusts, 1.5 ft waves, a wind advisory, or 60% rain.
  • Beach: Go at 70°F or warmer with light wind. No go under 55°F or with 60% rain.
  • Hike: Go between 40°F and 85°F with gusts under 25 mph. No go above 95°F, under 20°F, or with gusts of 40 mph.
  • Stargaze: Go when cloud cover is 25% or less and the moon is under 60% lit. No go at 70% cloud.
  • Fire pit: Never a plain go. No go on a Red Flag day or in gusts of 15 mph. Otherwise you need a fire district burn permit.
  • Smoke, all plans: Maybe above 100 AQI. No go above 150 AQI.

These are our rules of thumb, not official advice. Conditions change fast on the lake. Wave numbers are a forecast, because no sensor measures waves on Lake Tahoe.

Questions people ask

When is the best time to paddle on Lake Tahoe?
When the wind is light. The card above shows the wind and waves for the next few hours.
Can I have a fire pit in Incline Village?
Only with a burn permit from North Lake Tahoe Fire Protection District. Gas fire pits need one too. No outdoor burning is allowed on Red Flag days.
How do you decide?
We use simple rules with set numbers, listed on this page. They are rules of thumb, not official safety advice.
Why does it say No call?
The forecast we need is late or missing. We do not guess. If air quality or weather alerts are old, the card says Not sure, data is old.

How to read this page

Each row shows the time of its own data. Where the numbers come from is in "How we know" at the end of the page.

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